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The democratization of facts

Chicago Tribune workplace columnist Rex Huppke wrote an obituary for “facts” the other day that is getting a lot of attention. I thought it might be interesting to examine some of the facts he cites.

Though few expected Facts to pull out of its years-long downward spiral, the official cause of death was from injuries suffered last week when Florida Republican Rep. Allen West steadfastly declared that as many as 81 of his fellow members of the U.S. House of Representatives are communists.

Facts held on for several days after that assault — brought on without a scrap of evidence or reason — before expiring peacefully at its home in a high school physics book. Facts was 2,372.

Well. According to Politico, Allen was asked, “What percentage of the American legislature do you think are card-carrying Marxists,” and replied, “That’s a fair question. I believe there’s about 78 to 81 members of the Democratic Party that are members of the Communist Party.”

That’s where the video ends — but according to West’s spokesman, he went on to say, “It’s called the Congressional Progressive Caucus.”

According to Talking Points Memo, West on Tuesday clarified what he meant:

“There’s a very thin line between communism, progressivism, Marxism, socialism — or even, as Mark Levin has said, statism. It’s about nationalizing production, it’s about creating and expanding the welfare state. It’s about this idea of social and economic justice. And you hear that being played out — you know, now with fairness, fair share, economic equality, shared sacrifice, ad nauseum, ad infinitum.”

So is this a fact — or is it an opinion, like talking about a “war on women” or calling right-wingers “facists”? A bit of hyperbole to get the blood pumping, but not a statement to be taken literally.

At the very least, Huppke is wrong that West’s statement was offered “without a scrap of evidence or reason.”

Huppke continues,

Though weakened, Facts managed to persevere through the last two decades, despite historic setbacks that included President Bill Clinton’s affair with Monica Lewinsky, the justification for President George W. Bush’s decision to invade Iraq and the debate over President Barack Obama’s American citizenship.

Now… I’m not really sure what the Clinton/Lewinsky scandal has to do with facts. What is Huppke talking about here? It reads like nonsense to me. Regarding Iraq, a “justification” is of course not a factual statement — it’s an opinion. But let’s concede the larger point here, that there were factual claims made by the Bush administration about Iraq’s WMD program that turned out not to be true. This is of course not new — presidents have been making false claims for decades. I’ll grant Hupke’s point about Obama’s citizenship unreservedly, though.

Moving on…

Facts was wounded repeatedly throughout the recent GOP primary campaign, near fatally when Michele Bachmann claimed a vaccine for a sexually transmitted disease causes mental retardation.

Here’s what Bachmann said last year:

“There’s a woman who came up crying to me tonight after the debate. She said her daughter was given that vaccine. She told me her daughter suffered mental retardation as a result. There are very dangerous consequences.”

Bachmann later told the AP:

“All I was doing is relaying what a woman had said. I relayed what she said. I wasn’t attesting to her accuracy. I wasn’t attesting to anything.”

Bachmann also told Sean Hannity she didn’t know if the drug could cause those side effects. “I have no idea,” she said. “I am not a doctor. I am not a scientist. I am not a physician. All I was doing was reporting what a woman told me last night at the debate.”

I don’t this is hair-splitting — words mean things. Bachmann clearly didn’t “claim” that “a vaccine for a sexually transmitted disease causes mental retardation,” any more than I would be claiming that facts are dead if I say “Rex Huppke says facts are dead.”

Bachmann did give credence to the idea that the HPV vaccine could cause mental retardation, in a way that I think was irresponsible for a public figure. But I think someone writing an obituary about the death of facts should, y’know, be sure to get their facts really really straight.

More Huppke:

In December, Facts was briefly hospitalized after MSNBC’s erroneous report that GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s campaign was using an expression once used by the Ku Klux Klan.

Well…. apparently the KKK did indeed use the organizing slogan “Keep America American.” Romney has said, on a couple of occasions, “Keep America America,” once adding “by retaining its character as the land of opportunity” and another time “with the principals that made us the greatest nation on Earth.” I think MSNBC was right to apologize — Erik Wemple reports they did so because managers thought the network should have done some reporting before simply repeating a blog item on the air. Amen to that. As factual errors go, this isn’t exactly a whopper — the bigger problem is that it’s simply unfair — but Huppke is correct that the report is erroneous. Still, not the exactly the strongest example.

So of the six cited by Hupke, IMHO half are true, one is wrong, one is really an opinion and one is too muddled to judge. That’s not a great track record.

Toward the bottom of his piece, Hupke quotes New York University English professor Mary Poovey as saying, “American society has lost confidence that there’s a single alternative. Anybody can express an opinion on a blog or any other outlet and there’s no system of verification or double-checking, you just say whatever you want to and it gets magnified. It’s just kind of a bizarre world in which one person’s opinion counts as much as anybody else’s.”

Actually — what’s happened is, facts have been democratized. Americans are suspicious of authorities, and with good reason. People are not going to just trust that a drug is safe just because the Food and Drug Administration says so, or believe pronouncements from the New York Times just because it’s the Times. “And that’s the way it is” — that’s how Walter Cronkite signed off his show for two decades. Can anyone imagine that today?

A few summers ago I worked as an obituary writer and a big part of my job was combing through old news clips via Nexis — it was surprising to see just how much reporters even a few decades ago would use opaque statements like “it is believed that,” without explanation, casting themselves as all-knowing authorities. Nowadays, at the last media organization I worked for, reporters couldn’t even say “so-and-so could not be reached for comment” without explaining exactly what steps the reporter took to reach them. It’s all about transparency, even at the expense of narrative writing.

Ultimately we’ve jettisoned the idea that there’s any one institution so trustworthy that we should accept their assertions without scrutiny. What constitute the facts are up for debate, and one person’s opinion can ultimately be just as good as anyone else’s — if they can back up their assertions.

Facts aren’t dead — they’ve just been liberated from their long imprisonment by the authorities … and it’s the big institutions that are on their last legs.

can you get a stroke from doing yoga?

Does yoga cause strokes? New York Times science reporter William J. Broad has certainly been making the case that it does. In his new book “The Science of Yoga,” Broad makes the case that yoga is associated with rare type of strokes caused by either cartoid or vertebral artery dissection — tears in one of the three major neck artery that supplies blood to the brain. Serious stuff!

And yes, there is at least one documented case in the medical literature of vertebral artery dissection being linked to yoga — from 1977. Broad discusses this case at length in his book and article. It involves a 25-year-old who liked to be in shoulder stand for five minutes daily, with his neck “maximally flexed against the bare floor.”
Continue reading can you get a stroke from doing yoga?

male-female ratio and dating

Here are a couple charts examining why it can be misleading to look at male-female ratios and conclude that someplace — like New York — is good or bad for dating.

Basically, in the United States for the past 60 years, for every 1,000 girls born there’s been between 1,046 to 1,059 boys born. In just about every country around the world, more boys are born than girls. Overall around the world there’s 106.8 boys aged 0-4 for every 100 girls, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates. But the United States as a whole was just 49.1 percent male — or at least was at the time of the 2010 Census, which pegged the population 309,349,689 — 152.1 million males and 157.2 million females. Women and girls, it seems, are less “fragile” than men and boys. Women are less likely to die in accidents and less likely to drop dead of heart attacks.

Here’s what happens as a result:

Here’s another way of looking at the data:

Basically males outnumber females in the United States until age 30… from then on, women outnumber men.

This is the same exact chart except as a percentage, rather than a ratio:

Basically, when people (here’s looking at you, ladies) complain about the gender ratio of a given area when it comes to dating, see if you can get a breakdown by age. You may be surprised!

Population numbers can be tricky!

anterior ankle impingement surgery

ankle surgery 1I swear I’m not a hypochondriac, nor addicted to surgery. But three months after having surgery to remove a bone spur called a “metacarpal boss” on my right hand, I followed it up with having surgery to remove bone spurs called anterior ankle impingement syndrome on my right ankle. Weird, huh?

As I did with my hand surgery, I thought I’d describe a little about my ankle surgery, for the curious and so people who find this post via Google can have some idea of what to expect.
Continue reading anterior ankle impingement surgery

how dangerous is this whole ‘yoga’ thing, anyway??

yoga wreckage It’s enough to disquiet even advanced practioner’s savasana — the idea that yoga can “wreck your body.” The yoga world has been thrown into a tizzy by a Jan. 5 article by New York Times lead science writer William J. Broad, suggesting that the “‘the vast majority of people’ should give up yoga altogether. It’s simply too likely to cause harm.”

One element of the story was particularly interesting to me — the idea of tracking emergency-room admissions related to yoga. It turns out the data is all online! And I’ve been able to analyze it to come up with an idea of just how dangerous yoga really is.
Continue reading how dangerous is this whole ‘yoga’ thing, anyway??

guys (still) kick ass – part 1

It’s hard to imagine a more talked-about magazine article in recent years than Hannah Rosin’s 2010 essay in The Atlantic prophesying ““The End of Men.” Guys, she argued, are just not cut out for the New Economy and are being surpassed by women. The proposition has inspired a lot of debate, a forthcoming book by Rosin and even 20 pitches for sitcoms — on CBS alone! (ABC must have received quite a few too).

There’s just one problem. Until now, no one has bothered to look at the labor-market statistics that Rosin has used to make her case.

I did — and found many of her claims were misleading or even untrue.

Women aren’t a majority of the workforce, nor are they most of the nation’s managers; 1 in 5 men are not “out of work”; and women don’t dominate 13 of the 15 job categories expected to grow the most in the next decade.

These aren’t small errors — taken together they form the crux of Rosin’s argument. Hannah Rosin and The Atlantic owe American men everywhere an apology.

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fantasy football question / probability theory

I have a math/probability question that I can’t figure out, and I need your help. Not only can I not figure it out, I can’t even think sensibly about it.

I am in a fantasy football league where the top four teams make the playoffs, based on head-to-head matchups over the first 15 weeks of the regular season.

Before the last week of the our regular season, the top three spots were already locked up. Tall Ball was in first; Max Fish — my team — was in second; and Jer was in third, with Team Napoli and theduck on the cusp, fighting it out for fourth place. Jer threw his matchup with Team Napoli, which was a weaker team than theduck, saying he wanted to ensure he had the best chance of winning.

So the season ended like this:

1. Tall Ball 10-5-0 total points scored 1698.88
2. max fish 10-5-0, 1573.82
3. Jer 9-6-0, 1621.94
4. Team Napoli’s, 9-6-0, 1391.66
5. theduck, 8-7-0, 1570.36

So even though theduck was the stronger team, he missed out on the playoffs based on bad luck during his head-to-head matchups. So … wise move by Jer?

But Jer won’t be playing Team Napoli in the first round of the playoffs this week; Jer will play me (Max Fish) and Tall Ball will play Team Napoli. The championship will be played next week, with the winner of these two matchups squaring off.

Now, my question is: Did Jer’s strategy make sense, strategically thinking? Tall Ball is the best team in the league, and one could argue that Jer’s best chance would be hoping that another team got lucky and beat Tall Ball in the playoffs so he didn’t have to face him. Theduck had a better chance of beating Tall Ball, so did Jer shoot himself in the foot?

But of course even Team Napoli does have a shot of beating Tall Ball, and that would absolutely be the easiest matchup in the championship round.

This is essentially a math problem. Something about probabilities and statistics and all that. But I can’t make heads or tails of it. Arrgh. Can anyone help??

Beware of Energy Plus

Why does New York make this whole “electricity choice” thing so complicated? I was with Con Ed Solutions but got an email from my US Airways saying I could get a bunch of miles if I switched to Energy Plus. There’s no real way to comparison shop, but I figured I’d try them and see. It was going to be just one month of electric service; how expensive could it be? Of course as it happened my first bill was an estimated reading and they estimated it low. My second bill was for… $255!! Yowza. Looking at the bill they charged 22.8750¢ per kWh for November. Ouch!!! The “supply charge” was $155. Looking at my old bills, Con Ed Solutions charged between 9¢ and 10.5¢ per kWh, even in the summer months. Green Mountain Energy charges 12¢ plus about $5 a month for pollution-free energy. I sorta think I may have been better off not enrolling in a ESCO. (Electricity supply company…)

carpal boss surgery

Carpal bossSo I thought I would resurrect this long-dormant blog to describe my recent experience recovering from surgery to remove a bone spur in my right hand called a metacarpal boss … a bony protrusion often confused with a ganglion cyst. See picture of my hand at left or the X-rays below:

Hand x-rays

Anyway, so I had the surgery a week and a half ago, Oct. 10, 2011, at the Hand Surgery Center in Manhattan with Dr. Steven Beldner. (I thought Dr. Beldner was a good surgeon who took time to answer my questions.) I couldn’t find much information online about people’s post-surgical experiences so I thought I’d blog about it afterward.
Continue reading carpal boss surgery

Jonathan H. Cole

Website for one of my best friends, Jonathan H. Cole.

the unfair fairness doctrine

I am one of these people who will do a lot of research to win an argument. Like sometimes a lot of research. Actually of course with Google, Google Books and Google News’ archive search, research can pretty easy. It’s surprising how many people won’t do any research and will just rely on ideology to support their opinion. Anyway so recently I got into a Facebook debate about the Fairness Doctrine, the now-defunct rule that broadcasters “had an obligation to afford reasonable opportunity for discussion of contrasting points of view on controversial issues of public importance.” I argued this was a violation of the First Amendment and opened the door for government manipulation and intimidation of the press. Others challenged my “slippery slope” argument and said that didn’t happen during the 38 years the doctrine was in place. So I decided to do a little research … and was actually shocked at how bad the Fairness Doctrine was, in practice.
Continue reading the unfair fairness doctrine

wikinvest whoops

Here’s a sobering computer security story. So I signed up up for wikinvest.org about two days ago, but didn’t immediately receive a confirmation email. Then this afternoon I did… along with a second message saying my brokerage account had been added. That’s odd, I though; I didn’t link my brokerage account. I opened the email, which said in part:

You’ve successfully added the following accounts to your Wikinvest portfolio :
Account: Morgan Stanley Smith Barney Acct ***688A
Account: Morgan Stanley Smith Barney Acct ***687A
Account: Morgan Stanley Smith Barney Acct ***673A

What? I don’t even have brokerage accounts with Morgan Stanley. But when I logged in, the accounts were there:

wikinvest

Pretty wacky, right? Whoever’s account this is has $582,822 in the market, mostly in ETFs. (They’re down $8,000 on the day, at least as of this writing). And no, I can’t access this account or withdraw from it or anything like that, even if I wanted to. Or see who really owns it. But still seems like a pretty stunning bug by Wikinvest… [or maybe not; see below]

UPDATE 1/20/2011: Okay, I just chatted with one of the head honchos at Wikinvest. What actually apparently happened is a bit of a bizarre coincidence. Someone with a very similar email address to mine I guess signed up for the service around the same time I tried to, apparently giving them my email address rather than his. That explains why I didn’t get a confirmation email until a few days later… when he tried to get in and reset his account. Whooops. I know it sounds far-fetched but I believe it — the account username I received was a letter off the one I usually use. I had thought it was a typo on my part, but apparently not.

Twitter Updates for 2010-08-23

  • Drenched, sore and happy. 17+ miles on the books around croton-on-Harmon reservoir with @nyflyers. #running #

Twitter Updates for 2010-08-08

Twitter Updates for 2010-08-06

  • Shaq? u shd do top 10 RT @IanMBrowne Is there an athlete in recent memory who is more engaging & interesting 2 listen 2 than Pedro Martinez? #

Twitter Updates for 2010-08-01

Twitter Updates for 2010-07-30

  • Reason to love NY #681: Little kids handing out water to runners in Central Park for no reason — other than it's hot http://yfrog.com/6bgsjj #

Twitter Updates for 2010-07-25

  • #Salt. Good but not great. Enjoyable but lost steam toward the end. Worth seeing but not a must-see. #
  • I'm at Professor Thom's (219 2nd Ave, btw 13th & 14th, New York) w/ 2 others. http://4sq.com/ZhYib #

Twitter Updates for 2010-07-19

Twitter Updates for 2010-07-14

  • Hoboken 5k. We'll see if my high-altitude training in Peru pays off. #